I’m pretty much convinced this will be over soon based on all the data I’ve seen. At this point it’s mostly a media-driven event I feel.
So here’s the numbers as I understand them:

  • Based on an Icelandic study around 50% of the people infected exhibited no symptoms (but can spread it, though not as effectively as symptomatic people)
  • Based on WHO numbers, 80% of the people with symptoms exhibit mild symptoms.
  • Based on a lot of anecdotal observations, even people with symptoms aren’t / weren’t allowed to get tested.
  • WHO’s estimate is that for every confirmed case 3-10x cases exist.
  • Looking at the numbers above I think that’s actually far too low. If you told me it’s actually 50-100x of the confirmed cases I would not be surprised.
  • If that is true, then the mortality rate for this is actually pretty much like that of normal influenza, with a similar rate of hospitalization.
  • The key difference is that the virulence of COVID-19 is (WHO numbers) is around 6x that of the flu. Ergo more people get sick quicker — which is what’s stressing the healthcare industry.

This is serious, but it’s not the end of the world.

Take it easy and try not to get sick. But know that you’ve already been exposed.