Electoral vs Popular
There's been a lot of hub-bub about the electoral victory that President-elect Trump won last week as compared to the popular vote that swung Secretary Clinton's way.I've lost track of how many times this has ben brought up. The arguments are "she won the popular vote; she should be president" and "all the small states go for the Republicans." I wanted to examine the data for myself.
| State |
Population |
Electoral Votes |
Population / Elector |
Votes / California |
Dem / Rep |
| WY |
586,107 |
3 |
195369 |
3.64 |
Republican |
| VT |
626,042 |
3 |
208681 |
3.41 |
Democrat |
| DC |
672,228 |
3 |
224076 |
3.18 |
Democrat |
| AK |
738,432 |
3 |
246144 |
2.89 |
Republican |
| ND |
756,927 |
3 |
252309 |
2.82 |
Republican |
| RI |
1,056,298 |
4 |
264075 |
2.70 |
Democrat |
| SD |
858,469 |
3 |
286156 |
2.49 |
Republican |
| DE |
945,934 |
3 |
315311 |
2.26 |
Democrat |
| ME |
1,329,328 |
4 |
332332 |
2.14 |
Democrat * |
| NH |
1,330,608 |
4 |
332652 |
2.14 |
Democrat |
| MT |
1,032,949 |
3 |
344316 |
2.07 |
Republican |
| HI |
1,431,603 |
4 |
357901 |
1.99 |
Democrat |
| WV |
1,844,128 |
5 |
368826 |
1.93 |
Republican |
| NE |
1,896,190 |
5 |
379238 |
1.88 |
Republican |
| ID |
1,654,930 |
4 |
413733 |
1.72 |
Republican |
| NM |
2,085,109 |
5 |
417022 |
1.71 |
Republican |
| NV |
2,890,845 |
6 |
481808 |
1.48 |
Democrat |
| KS |
2,911,641 |
6 |
485274 |
1.47 |
Republican |
| AR |
2,978,204 |
6 |
496367 |
1.43 |
Republican |
| MS |
2,992,333 |
6 |
498722 |
1.43 |
Republican |
| UT |
2,995,919 |
6 |
499320 |
1.43 |
Republican |
| CT |
3,590,886 |
7 |
512984 |
1.39 |
Democrat |
| IA |
3,123,899 |
6 |
520650 |
1.37 |
Republican |
| AL |
4,858,979 |
9 |
539887 |
1.32 |
Republican |
| SC |
4,896,146 |
9 |
544016 |
1.31 |
Republican |
| MN |
5,489,594 |
10 |
548959 |
1.30 |
Democrat |
| KY |
4,425,092 |
8 |
553137 |
1.29 |
Republican |
| OK |
3,911,338 |
7 |
558763 |
1.27 |
Republican |
| OR |
4,028,977 |
7 |
575568 |
1.24 |
Democrat |
| WI |
5,771,337 |
10 |
577134 |
1.23 |
Republican |
| LA |
4,670,724 |
8 |
583841 |
1.22 |
Republican |
| WA |
7,170,351 |
12 |
597529 |
1.19 |
Democrat |
| TN |
6,600,299 |
11 |
600027 |
1.19 |
Republican |
| MD |
6,006,401 |
10 |
600640 |
1.18 |
Democrat |
| IN |
6,619,680 |
11 |
601789 |
1.18 |
Republican |
| CO |
5,456,574 |
9 |
606286 |
1.17 |
Democrat |
| MO |
6,083,672 |
10 |
608367 |
1.17 |
Republican |
| MA |
6,794,422 |
11 |
617675 |
1.15 |
Democrat |
| MI |
9,922,576 |
16 |
620161 |
1.15 |
Republican |
| AZ |
6,828,065 |
11 |
620733 |
1.15 |
Republican |
| GA |
10,214,860 |
16 |
638429 |
1.11 |
Republican |
| NJ |
8,958,013 |
14 |
639858 |
1.11 |
Democrat |
| PA |
12,802,503 |
20 |
640125 |
1.11 |
Republican |
| IL |
12,859,995 |
20 |
643000 |
1.11 |
Democrat |
| VA |
8,382,993 |
13 |
644846 |
1.10 |
Democrat |
| OH |
11,613,423 |
18 |
645190 |
1.10 |
Republican |
| NC |
10,042,802 |
15 |
669520 |
1.06 |
Republican |
| NY |
19,795,791 |
29 |
682613 |
1.04 |
Democrat |
| FL |
20,271,272 |
29 |
699009 |
1.02 |
Republican |
| CA |
39,144,818 |
55 |
711724 |
1.00 |
Democrat |
| TX |
27,469,114 |
38 |
722871 |
0.98 |
Republican |
What you have is the states, their population (from Wikipedia, 2015 estimate), the number of electors, and the number of people per elector (the column that's been used to sort the table).There's the general notion that California has the lowest number, so I normalized the data for California being one. Based on this, Wyoming with the lowest population, each vote counts for 3.64 times more per elector than California. Surprisingly, Texas has the lowest number wherein each voter is even less important than California on a per-elector basis.The last column shows which way the state went last week. The popular opinion, like I said up top, is that the small states in the west sway the election. Reality shows otherwise. Six of the top ten states swung Democrat. (Maine has split electors, however)Another point is that the candidates know how the system works. Each candidate works to win states on their way to 270. This is a set system where the rules are laid out beforehand. You can't switch things around after the fact.Say, for instance, you had a football game between teams A and B. Team A scored two touchdowns and has a score of 14. Team B managed to get a touchdown and two field goals netting them 13. You can't, retroactively, change what a field goal is worth or a touchdown. You can't say that since B scored three times compared to only two for A that B should be the victor; that's just not how things work.If the popular vote was the deciding factor, you know for certain that Mr. Trump would have campaigned in states that he had no chance of winning. He didn't have many major campaign stops in Washington, Oregon, and California knowing that losing is a foregone conclusion. Same with Ms. Clinton in states that she had no chance of winning herself.The popular vote, being unimportant to the outcome, was ignored during the campaigning process.Do I think it needs to be changed? Yes, in some ways it certainly needs tweaks. But, again, you can't change systems during, or worse still, after the contest.Now, back to the regularly scheduled bickering.